EUR/USD Exchange Rate

Euro FX futures allow traders to assess value against the U.S. dollar, as well as the opportunity to address risk from currency fluctuations in other foreign trade markets. Since the Euro is used in 17 of the 27 European Union countries, many times a Euro note .

Build your trading muscle with no added pressure of the market. A demo account is intended to familiarize you with the tools and features of our trading platforms and to facilitate the testing of trading strategies in a risk-free environment. The euro fx futures are available as standardized contracts from the CME or the Eurex exchanges. Currency futures are cash settled or can be settled physically. The latest ADP report showed that employers added k new private sector jobs in December, up from previous month's downwardly revised reading of k and k anticipated.

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Euro FX futures and options on futures contracts traded at CME are designed to reflect changes in the U.S. dollar value of the euro. It is not to be confused with the Eurodollar futures contract, which is an interest rate futures product traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

Changes in tax policies are expected to create a huge demand for US dollar abroad because of repatriation of dollars back to the U. Regulatory incentives may also influence the availability of dollar funding. The Fed will have a more hawkish tilt in with the new nominations.

Jerome Powell indicated his preference for normalization of interest rates and maintaining that the Fed's balance sheet unwinding program. Wall Street friendly Fed chairman, Treasury secretary, and Council of Economic Advisers, forming a complete deregulatory trio which is positive for U. Fiscal policy will overtake the monetary policy in stimulating the US economy. Tax cuts could reduce the trade deficit by half.

The Fed will have to extend swap lines all over the world to allow some dollar liquidity but rates are going higher for this. Dollars because the U. Oil being traded in other currencies does not impact the value of the Dollar. Chinese central bank to buy US Treasuries: In an unwind risk-off scenario, the USD strengthen on safe-haven flows. Dollar as the main reserve asset. Investors are paid to be long the dollar against most major currencies, a cheap way to hedge European or Japanese exposure.

Increasing deposits in emerging markets currencies funded by borrowing in USD yield hungry international investors are happy to have exposure given the better economic situation in EMs. Growth has converged, but monetary policy has not. Experts argue peak divergence - on the respective balance sheets - is still ahead. Germany continues to grapple with its political troubles and the possibility of facing new elections in The credibility of the ECB could be affected if the environment changes forcing the central bank to renege on its earlier guidance.

Rates may not rise until well after the end of asset purchases, which would push the first rate hike out to ECB tightening could increase the borrowing costs for countries like Italy and Spain.

Italy will hold an election in March: In Italy, each of the four main parties opposing the Democratic Party subscribe to the introduction of a parallel currency to rival the Euro.

Despite the cyclical recovery, core inflation still shows no sign of a convincing upward trend low wage growth. German industry is competitive at stronger euro levels though the cost structure of other economies is not as favourable. The lending capacity of the ESM could be tested in the event of another recession in the Eurozone.

To prevent runs on banks the EU is investigating a scheme to freeze bank accounts. The next logical step is ban on cash altogether.

The European banking system is over-leveraged and under-capitalized. The SRF is being built-up over a period of eight years The ECB contained its interest rates far to long. Add QE in the mix then the exchange rate becomes misplaced and trades at incorrect levels- a giant breakdown in the exchange rate is possible. Structural factors like the slow growth in working age population, and th rise in life expectancy, will continue to depress potential growth and thereby the natural rate of interest.

The regulatory demand for HQLA, including deposits at ECB and disincentive to take on short-term funding, should put downward pressure on short-term money market rates. The Italian banking system collapse: EUR has probably benefited from unhedged equity inflow and is vulnerable to a correction in equities.

Mario Draghi's focus on growth and comparatively mild emphasis on the strong euro is seen as an endorsement to the EUR rising. The Euro has increasingly become a funding currency, amongst others because rates are so low, speculators are borrowing in euros to buy higher yielding assets.

In a risk off event, those speculators might have to reduce their bets and, as part of that, buy back the euro. A local low is typically formed during the Feb-March period following which prices again tend to strongly rally into the start of summer.

Around June-July, the euro then starts to enter a bearish cycle with prices showing a bottom by October-November. The above chart shows a 10 and 5-year composite overview of the seasonality in the euro fx futures.

This seasonality can be used by day traders to ascertain the trends based on the month that they are trading and position themselves accordingly. One of the biggest advantages of trading the currency futures over their OTC counter-parts is the fact that because futures contracts are regulated and standardized, it allows the average retail day trader to make use of certain information.

The Commitment of Traders report, which is widely used in the commodity futures markets, also holds power on the currency futures markets. One of the simplest ways to take advantage of this information is to look for peaks and bottoms in the institutional positioning in the CoT report.

Every now and then, the smart money tends to be overcrowded to one side of the market; Net long or net short. By using a relative comparison typically a 5-year period a crowded net long or net short position in the market will often result in prices snapping to the opposite direction. Euro Fx futures and institutional investors positioning Source freecotdata.

The above chart shows the euro fx futures continuous contract prices on the top and the Institutional Investors positions at the bottom. You can see how prices tend to move inversely every time the smart money heads to record net long or net short positions. This information, combined with other factors such as technical and fundamental analysis can yield good short term profits.

In conclusion, within the currency futures category, the euro fx futures rank right on top in terms of volume reflecting on the level of activity in the euro fx futures contracts. With low day trading margin requirements, traders can easily trade the standard or the e-mini euro fx futures contract by simply paying a commission and no additional fees. You can take advantage by trading the euro fx currency futures either to hedge the risks of your portfolio or to take advantage of the volatility in the euro fx futures.

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